Market Myths & Realities: Presidential Elections and the Market


Hi, I’m John Healy, Chief Investment Officer of Healy Wealth Management. Thank you for taking some time to hear from me. Today we’re joined by Kyle Grandstaff, the portfolio manager here. Today, we’re going to talk about presidential elections. We’re in an election year, obviously, and everyone’s wondering what it’s going to do to the economy. Kyle has done some studying on the history of presidential elections and their impact on the markets.


Thanks, John. So, I went back and looked at the data: looking at different election years going back about 70 years or so, so about 20 periods. In all but 2, the market was up. So, whether it’s election year, or not, the market continues with its growth, and we don’t really put too much weight into election years, given that it doesn’t act any differently than an average year. It’s hard to predict what each election year will look like, but that’s the pattern that we’ve seen.


While there’s choppiness throughout the year leading up to the election, there’s most importantly- I guess you’d call it a relief rally- a time when the uncertainty goes away, no matter which party wins. The mere fact that uncertainty has gone down, because we know who won means the market just likes to have less uncertainty.

As political news comes out this year, there’s going to be a lot of worry. And that’s what sells in the media: getting people agitated and worried. And so, the presidential election is certainly going to have a lot of emotion, right?


We would love it if you would give us a call if you have any questions, or if you want to understand more about how we think about investing in businesses for the long run. We’re confident and comfortable continuing to invest in businesses, even given all the uncertainty you’re seeing this year in the election.